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In this study I show that simple heuristic models and numerical calculations suggest that an entire class of commonly invoked models of earthquake failure processes cannot explain triggering of seismicity by transient or \"dynamic\" stress changes, such as stress changes associated with passing seismic waves. The models of this class have the common feature that the physical property characterizing failure increases at an accelerating rate when a fault is loaded (stressed) at a constant rate. Examples include models that invoke rate state friction or subcritical crack growth, in which the properties characterizing failure are slip or crack length, respectively. Failure occurs when the rate at which these grow accelerates to values exceeding some critical threshold. These accelerating failure models do not predict the finite durations of dynamically triggered earthquake sequences (e.g., at aftershock or remote distances). Some of the failure models belonging to this class have been used to explain static stress triggering of aftershocks. This may imply that the physical processes underlying dynamic triggering differs or that currently applied models of static triggering require modification. If the former is the case, we might appeal to physical mechanisms relying on oscillatory deformations such as compaction of saturated fault gouge leading to pore pressure increase, or cyclic fatigue. However, if dynamic and static triggering mechanisms differ, one still needs to ask why static triggering models that neglect these dynamic mechanisms appear to explain many observations. If the static and dynamic triggering mechanisms are the same, perhaps assumptions about accelerating failure and/or that triggering advances the failure times of a population of inevitable earthquakes are incorrect.
Reliability of base metal electrode (BME) multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) that until recently were used mostly in commercial applications, have been improved substantially by using new materials and processes. Currently, the inception of intrinsic wear-out failures in high quality capacitors became much greater than the mission duration in most high-reliability applications. However, in capacitors with defects degradation processes might accelerate substantially and cause infant mortality failures. In this work, a physical model that relates the presence of defects to reduction of breakdown voltages and decreasing times to failure has been suggested. The effect of the defect size has been analyzed using a thermal runaway model of failures. Adequacy of highly accelerated life testing (HALT) to predict reliability at normal operating conditions and limitations of voltage acceleration are considered. The applicability of the model to BME capacitors with cracks is discussed and validated experimentally.
Test procedures for accelerated stress-corrosion testing of high-strength aluminum alloys faster and provide more quantitative information than traditional pass/fail tests. Method uses data from tests on specimen sets exposed to corrosive environment at several levels of applied static tensile stress for selected exposure times then subsequently tensile tested to failure. Method potentially applicable to other degrading phenomena (such as fatigue, corrosion fatigue, fretting, wear, and creep) that promote development and growth of cracklike flaws within material.
Coupled dilatancy-diffusion processes resulting from microscopically brittle damage due to precursory cracking have been observed in the laboratory and suggested as a mechanism for earthquake precursors. One reason precursors have proven elusive may be the scaling in space: recent geodetic and seismic data placing strong limits on the spatial extent of the nucleation zone for recent earthquakes. Another may be the scaling in time: recent laboratory results on axi-symmetric samples show both a systematic decrease in circumferential extensional strain at failure and a delayed and a sharper acceleration of acoustic emission event rate as strain rate is decreased. Here we examine the scaling of such processes in time from laboratory to field conditions using brittle creep (constant stress loading) to failure tests, in an attempt to bridge part of the strain rate gap to natural conditions, and discuss the implications for forecasting the failure time. Dilatancy rate is strongly correlated to strain rate, and decreases to zero in the steady-rate creep phase at strain rates around 10-9 s-1 for a basalt from Mount Etna. The data are well described by a creep model based on the linear superposition of transient (decelerating) and accelerating micro-crack growth due to stress corrosion. The model produces good fits to the failure time in retrospect using the accelerating acoustic emission event rate, but in prospective tests on synthetic data with the same properties we find failure-time forecasting is subject to systematic epistemic and aleatory uncertainties that degrade predictability. The next stage is to use the technology developed to attempt failure forecasting in real time, using live streamed data and a public web-based portal to quantify the prospective forecast quality under such controlled laboratory conditions.
A probabilistic design methodology which predicts the fast fracture and time-dependent failure behavior of thermomechanically loaded ceramic components is discussed using the CARES/LIFE integrated design computer program. Slow crack growth (SCG) is assumed to be the mechanism responsible for delayed failure behavior. Inert strength and dynamic fatigue data obtained from testing coupon specimens (O-ring and C-ring specimens) are initially used to calculate the fast fracture and SCG material parameters as a function of temperature using the parameter estimation techniques available with the CARES/LIFE code. Finite element analysis (FEA) is used to compute the stress distributions for the tube as amore function of applied pressure. Knowing the stress and temperature distributions and the fast fracture and SCG material parameters, the life time for a given tube can be computed. A stress-failure probability-time to failure (SPT) diagram is subsequently constructed for these tubes. Such a diagram can be used by design engineers to estimate the time to failure at a given failure probability level for a component subjected to a given thermomechanical load. less
Slab avalanches are caused by a crack forming and propagating in a weak layer within the snow cover, which eventually causes the detachment of the overlying cohesive slab. The gradual damage process leading to the nucleation of the initial failure is still not entirely understood. Therefore, we studied the damage process preceding snow failure by analyzing the acoustic emissions (AE) generated by bond failure or micro-cracking. The AE allow studying the ongoing progressive failure in a non-destructive way. We performed fully load-controlled failure experiments on snow samples presenting a weak layer and recorded the generated AE. The size and frequency of the generated AE increased before failure revealing an acceleration of the damage process with increased size and frequency of damage and/or microscopic cracks. The AE energy was power-law distributed and the exponent (b-value) decreased approaching failure. The waiting time followed an exponential distribution with increasing exponential coefficient λ before failure. The decrease of the b-value and the increase of λ correspond to a change in the event distribution statistics indicating a transition from homogeneously distributed uncorrelated damage producing mostly small AE to localized damage, which cause larger correlated events which leads to brittle failure. We observed brittle failure for the fast experiment and a more ductile behavior for the slow experiments. This rate dependence was reflected also in the AE signature. In the slow experiments the b value and λ were almost constant, and the energy rate increase was moderate indicating that the damage process was in a stable state - suggesting the damage and healing processes to be balanced. On a shorter time scale, however, the AE parameters varied indicating that the damage process was not steady but consisted of a sum of small bursts. We assume that the bursts may have been generated by cascades of correlated micro-cracks caused by localization of
Heterogeneity develops in magmas during ascent and is dominated by the development of crystal and importantly, bubble populations or pore-network clusters which grow, interact, localize, coalesce, outgas and resorb. Pore-scale heterogeneity is also ubiquitous in sedimentary basin fill during diagenesis. As a first step, we construct numerical simulations in 3D in which randomly generated heterogeneous and polydisperse spheres are placed in volumes and which are permitted to overlap with one another, designed to represent the random growth and interaction of bubbles in a liquid volume. We use these simulated geometries to show that statistical predictions of the inter-bubble lengthscales and evolving bubble surface area or cluster densities can be made based on fundamental percolation theory. As a second step, we take a range of well constrained random heterogeneous rock samples including sandstones, andesites, synthetic partially sintered glass bead samples, and intact glass samples and subject them to a variety of stress loading conditions at a range of temperatures until failure. We record in real time the evolution of the number of acoustic events that precede failure and show that in all scenarios, the acoustic event rate accelerates toward failure, consistent with previous findings. Applying tools designed to forecast the failure time based on these precursory signals, we constrain the absolute error on the forecast time. We find that for all sample types, the error associated with an accurate forecast of failure scales non-linearly with the lengthscale between the pore clusters in the material. Moreover, using a simple micromechanical model for the deformation of porous elastic bodies, we show that the ratio between the equilibrium sub-critical crack length emanating from the pore clusters relative to the inter-pore lengthscale, provides a scaling for the error on forecast accuracy. Thus for the first time we provide a potential quantitative correction for 153554b96e
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